Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Prospect Sale History

I always like appraising in Prospect Kentucky. Whether it is the city's 4th of July celebration, golf courses, or high end neighborhoods, Prospect is a fine place to live.  Both the Oldham and Jefferson County sides of Prospect have seen growth over the past 5 years as well as stable sale prices.

Recently I had done a study of high end homes in the Jefferson County area, which revealed declining property values for several years.  Not so surprising, Prospect has remained stable.  This is supported by the increasing number of sales over the past five years, and low REO rates.  There are many factors that go into a vibrant community: location, employment, amenities, and how it is governed are just a few of the areas that make Prospect so desirable.

Monday, June 23, 2014

Education and Appraising

This will be a relatively short post compared to those in the past, but I just want to thank all those who have helped me to obtain a very important milestone in my life.  Thank God for the opportunity to attend McKendree University, thanks to my wife Meredith and our children for standing by my side as our lives revolved around the school schedule for 4 years, thank you to Dr. Mostafa who challenged me both scholastically and professionally, and thank you to all the friends that I've made along the way.

It started almost 4 years ago with the opportunity to pursue a Bachelor's Degree in Information Technology.  During this time, I have done my best to practice what I speak to young men about in terms of persistence, hard work, and excellence.  At McKendree University, I have earned the right to be on the President's List four times, was asked to be a student marshall, graduated Summa Cum Laude, and I was inducted into the honor societies of

Phi Kappa Phi and Upsilon Pi Epsilon.  Through all this, I plan on using this stepping stone to advance my appraisal practice and continue in-house application development for the appraisal industry.

Monday, April 28, 2014

Appraising in Radcliff- Part 2

Have you ever come across a statistic that sends up a red flag?  Or in this case the appearance of a lack of a statistic?  I recently had appraised a rental property in Radcliff, and I found out that very few people knew exactly how many rental units there were in the Radcliff, KY area.  

In the five county area that BVS operates in, there are two main MLSs (multiple listing service): Louisville and Hardin County.  Louisville's MLS can get you pretty spoiled because they have an up to date rental database, unlike Hardin County.  In order to find rental data in Hardin County you would have to call a dozen property management companies and try to hobble something together.  Well, there is better way.

Searching for this data coincided with the recent announcement that Knox Hills (a government contractor that builds housing for the military), will be making 1302 units available for rent to a portion of the local population.  As an appraiser, this is a change in the local economic landscape that needs analysis.  
Let's start with defining a couple of markets.  Housing occupancy according to the U.S. Census Bureau is split into two areas: occupied and vacant housing units.  They further go on to split the occupied housing units into housing tenure (type of housing): owner occupied and renter occupied.  Your local area percentages may differ from our local numbers, but I was shocked to find out that our unadjusted tenure rental percentage in the 40160 area code was 46.1% in the 2010 census (compared to only 32.7% in the county seat Elizabethtown).  Now lets flood the renter occupied market with 1302 new units, and the renter occupied market now swings over to the majority of the occupied market at 53%!  What are the ramifications of having a quarter of the local rental market under the control of a military installation?  How does this effect the conversion of renters to buyers?  What are the effects in the community when property owners are in the minority?  There are many questions that come up once you start down this road.  

While I'm on the topic about decisions that the military has made that effects our community, lets revisit last month's article and continue to talk about trends.  A recent article in The News Enterprise quoted a local official saying that property values in the local area are stable; I beg to differ.  Comparing last year's 1st quarter to this year, Radcliff has seen its median sale price drop by over $16,000.  This is in conjunction with two consecutive quarters of declining property values and over 12 months of inventory according to the local MLS.  What has taken place in the past year to cause these numbers to drop?  How about an entire combat brigade team being deactivated early and government furloughs.  

Since the last article, we have seen the list-to-sale ratio slide to 12 months of declining percentages and an additional quarter of declining property values.  On a good note, the days on market and listing prices seem to be stable.  If either of these start to slide then I would have to say the the overall trend is now declining in the Radcliff area.  

I hate to leave on what seems like a down note, but sometimes the figures are hard to swallow.  As a property owner in Radcliff, I'm in the same boat as everyone else.  I hope you have enjoyed this article.  If so, please leave a review on our Facebook  or Google+ page.

1. All stats from HKAR MLS or http://factfinder2.census.gov/

2. www.thenewsenterprise.com

Monday, March 17, 2014

Appraising in Radcliff

I always enjoy appraising in Radcliff, because it gives me a reason to dig into the data for our local area.  As many of you know, there has been a lot of news coming out of Radcliff over the past year.  Government furloughs, units leaving, units coming, new areas of inventory, businesses coming, and businesses going are just a few of the hot topics in our area.  As an appraiser, one of our tasks is to analyze these effects on property values.

The good news about our part of the country is that real estate markets tend to react slowly.  We look at these reactions and try to extract what is known as a trend.  According to Webster's, a trend is: to extend in a general direction; follow a general course; veer in a new direction.  When we look at the number of closed sales that took place in the last year, active listings, months of inventory, absorption rate, median sale price, median list price, median days on market, and median list-to-sale ratios, and local economics, we are trying to see if several of these areas are pointing in a new direction.  For example, we would not say that property values are increasing/declining if we had only one of the above areas indicating the change; however, if we had several of the above areas pointing in a new direction over a long period of time (say, 4 quarters), then we would be inclined to say that a trend has developed.

Take the above chart for example.  The data from this chart was pulled from HKAR MLS to see if there has been a trend developing between the median sale price and inventory in Radcliff for the past year.  Based off the above data, we see only 1 quarter where this is true, which is not enough time to say that this is a trend in our area.  What I've seen in the past is that when inventory stays at or above 12 months, then the median sale price starts to drop.  Time will tell if these indicators combined with the changing economics of Radcliff, and the increase in inventory from Knox Hills will start to effect property values. 

Thanks for reading, and I hope you learned something.  Stay tuned for the upcoming release of a book I'm writing on the appraisal industry, and don't forget to head on over to our Facebook page and our Google+ page to leave a review.  

Friday, February 7, 2014

Promotion for Jefferson County Residents

Last year we ran a promotion for the residents of the Hardin County area, so I thought it would be fitting to do the same for Jefferson County folks as well.  Refer 3 clients that purchase a listing appraisal or litigation services and you will win a $50 gift card to your favorite home repair store.  To qualify, the letter of engagement needs to state that the client was referred by you, offer expires March 31, 2014.

Friday, January 31, 2014

Radcliff Sales History 2013

I had an interesting conversation with our city's planning and zoning coordinator today.  We talked about several thing which ranged from building practices, to what makes a subdivision tick.  After I got back to the office, I thought I'd take a look at what has been going on in Radcliff for the past year.  Surprisingly I noticed a couple of things.

As many of you know, Radcliff had two major events as far as our economy goes this year: government furlough and the shutdown.  The furlough which started in the March time frame signaled a decline in values until summer, which is normally a strong time of the year for real estate.  The second was the government shutdown which started in October.  The market usually starts to slow down during this time of year because of the holidays, but a $20,000 drop?  During this time, I had several conversations with folks who were employed on Ft. Knox, and several of them said they had to get a second job, or leave the government sector to find jobs that paid what they were used to.  Some families had a reduction of income by 20-40% depending on how many of the adults where employed by the government.

Fortunately there is a silver lining.  Even though we had a reduction in income for many of us, the market remained flat overall.  We could have seen double digit depreciation across the board, but we did not.  On another good note, there is an expected increase in building permits in 2014 in addition to a new factory in Etown that will bring 75 new jobs to the area.

Thanks for reading.  Don't forget to subscribe to our website and Facebook page!!!

Monday, January 20, 2014

Radcliff Update

Change is a good thing, and there is going to be a lot of it in 2014.  I wanted to let everyone know that there is going to be a big announcement in the next day or two.  In the mean time, the website has had some tweaking done to it, and there is now an active subscribe feed.  So feel free to enter your email address to get all the latest and greatest from BVS.