Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Market Update

I want to thank Josh Hay for sending me these updates, and I also want to wish him well on his new position at Wells Fargo.  
I have been hearing from several sources such as, LinkedIn, and Bank of America that they are predicting the start of the housing recovery this year.  Some of these sources may want to be considered with a grain of salt, but local stats are looking promising.  Last year's 1st quarter in Hardin Co. saw 197 sales with a median sale price of $140,500.  This year's 1st quarter has produced 192 sales, and their median sale price is $142,250.  Although gas prices, inflation, and interest rates may start to climb, these are all indicators of a recovering market.  

Mortgage bond prices finished the week higher helping mortgage interest rates improve. Rates were negative Monday morning but got a boost later that day as Italian Prime Minister Monti suggested that Spain may soon become the epicenter of the European debt crisis. This reignited the flight to quality buying of US debt as fears grow that Italy and Spain will need a bailout like Greece. Unfortunately for Europe, the economies of Italy and Spain are considerably larger than Greece. Rates were helped later in the week when the durable goods orders data came in weaker than expected and weekly jobless claims were higher than expected. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by about 1/4 to 3/8 of a discount point.
Date and Time
ISM IndexMonday,
April 2,
10:00 am, et
52.8Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Construction SpendingMonday,
April 2,
10:00 am, et
Up 0.2%Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
Factory OrdersTuesday,
April 3,
10:00 am, et
Up 0.1%Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Fed MinutesTuesday,
April 3,
2:00 pm, et
NoneImportant. Details of the last Fed meeting will be thoroughly analyzed.
ADP EmploymentWednesday,
April 4,
8:30 am, et
225kImportant. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
Weekly Jobless ClaimsThursday,
April 5,
8:30 am, et
355kImportant. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
April 6,
8:30 am, et
Payrolls +210k
Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Consumer CreditFriday,
April 6,
3:00 pm, et
$12bLow importance. A significantly large increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
The ADP employment report is a measure of employment derived from data of roughly 500,000 US businesses. The survey focuses on the private sector of the economy. In contrast, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the regular employment report which includes both private and government employment statistics.
The ADP employment report has gained more prominence lately in that it is delivered prior to the Friday employment report. This gives analysts an improved forecast heading into the payrolls component of the employment report later in the week.
The Fed is usually focused on keeping inflation in check. Tightening employment conditions can result in wage inflation. The ADP report provides solid data on these conditions. Despite this, the data still can diverge from the regular employment report. The employment report is derived from a household survey and an establishment survey. These surveys often differ from one another and from the ADP employment report in that they are based on different data sets. There are no guarantees that the most important employment report the first Friday of each month will mirror the ADP report released 2 days prior. With this in mind floating into the data is always very risky. Now is a great time to take advantage of mortgage interest rates at these historically favorable levels to avoid future market volatility.
RATE LINK is provided by Market Information for Mortgage Professionals. Copyright 2012. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market Information Services, Inc. The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, however no representation or warranties are written or implied.
CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This e-mail transmission and any attachments may contain confidential or legally privileged information. This information is intended only for the necessary business use of the individual(s) or entity to whom it is intended even if addressed incorrectly. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the sender by e-mail at the address shown. You should delete this entire transmission from your files if you are not the intended recipient and you are prohibited from retaining, distributing, disclosing or using any information contained herein. Thank you for your compliance.


No comments:

Post a Comment